The sweeping social changes and revolutions rocking the Middle East and North Africa in recent months have indeed taken the world by surprise. Although many analysts and experts agree that these movements will result in a lasting change that will drastically modify the region’s geo-political landscape, no one knows yet in which direction this change might head. As the French philosopher and political scientist Raymond Aron said, “Men make history without knowing the history that they are making.”

Will these revolts give rise to true democracies or give birth to new authoritarian...